Wednesday, May 5, 2010

UK Election 2010: Who Will Win?

For latest election result go this entry: 
This is surely a billion dollar question: Who will win in UK Election 2010. The voting will start within a few hours and all the 3 parties would be hoping that their supporters would go in large number. I was taking a look at the latest opinion poll at Sky News and it showed that the Conservative Party was leading the poll with 37 points while both Labor and Liberal have got support of 28% people each. The 7% people will vote for other parties. Well, I also heard that many people are undecided and this time, a lot may depend on the votes of these undecided people.

According to Gov Monitor, the Conservatives have a strong chance of even winning the majority number of seats:
I also expect the Conservatives to outperform the national swing in Labour held marginals – the seven percent swing we’ve seen in the YouGov, MORI and Crosby/Textor polls would take the Conservatives over 300 and close to a majority. What is much more difficult to do is predict what will happen in Lib Dem marginals. It seems likely the Conservative advance will be slightly offset by losing seats to the Liberal Democrats, but there have been a couple of straws in the wind like that ICM poll of Lib Dem marginals that suggest the Lib Dems are advancing more in Labour held marginals than Conservative ones. We don’t have the polling evidence to judge that – but whether the Lib Dems advance evenly, or do better against Labour, will be the difference between the Conservatives getting about 300 seats and getting up to 310 or more.

I disagree with the prediction because I think that the Liberal Democrats will have massive gains in number of seats and a hung parliament is most likely. Voters will cast votes in 50,000 polling stations and it is a huge task for the people who are behind the management. The first results are expected to come to the media within just one hour of the closing of voting.
Nick Clegg, the leader of the Liberal Democrats is perhaps the surprise package for US election 2010. Strong showing in the election debates has turned the tide for him and his party. They are now a major factor and if there is a hung parliament then Nick Clegg will be the king maker. If really there is a hung parliament and he becomes crucial then I think that the Liberal Democrats should not go for any ministerial post but focus on election reforms that would ensure more seats for them in future.
It seems that all hopes are lost for the ruling Labor Party and the current Prime Minster Gordon Brown. I think that he is very unlucky because it is the time of economic recession. It was beyond his control and most people in England are unhappy. It is perhaps sure that Labor will not win the election and there is fear that they may get 3rd position.
The Conservatives party and its leader David Cameron is getting huge support from the media. The Economist has supported him openly. Daily Telegraph even wrote: General Election 2010: Only a Tory government can restore nation's fortunes
Character always matters in politics, and it matters more than ever now. The age of austerity that will shortly be upon us will require some hard decisions. There will be bruising battles with the public-sector unions; the might of the Whitehall establishment will have to be taken on. The scale and role of government will have to be fundamentally re-assessed because the deficit will demand it.
In this election whoever wins, two new groups have already won. There are record number of candidates from minority ethnic communities and many candidates are of South Asian origin. This is perhaps the first time, a Member of Parliament of Bangladeshi origin will be elected. There are a record number of female candidates in this election. So, UK election 2010 will produce a record number of female MPs too.
I am putting my hopes on a hung parliament and you will have to wait another 16-18 hours to see whether I am right or not. What is your idea about UK Election  

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